March Market Review from Sumner Wealth Management

 

 
 
 swm noname    

MARCH 2016

 
 

 In This Edition:

  • Market Review 
  • US Economy
  • International Economy
  • Insurance Updates
  • Thoughts/Opinion

 

Market Performance

Stock Market

February

 QTD

YTD 2016

 Total U.S. Market1  -0.03%  -5.67%  -7.84%
   Domestic Large Cap Equity2  -0.13%  -5.09%  -6.19%
   Domestic Small Cap Equity3  0.00%  -8.80%  -14.97%
 International Equity4  -1.14%  -7.87%  -17.37%
   Developed International Equity5  -1.83%  -8.93%  -15.18%
   Emerging Market Equity6  -0.16%  -6.64%  -23.41%

Fixed Income

February

 QTD

YTD 2016

 U.S. Bonds7  0.71%  +2.10%  +1.50%
Cash Equivalent8  +0.02%  0.03%  +0.05%
1Russell 3000 2S&P 500 Index 3Russell 2000 Index 4MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. Index 5MSCI EAFE Index 6iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index 7Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index 8Barclays Capital 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index   
 
 

Dear Visitor,

Well the Spring Weather has finally arrived.  Earlier than expected, but I welcome the change and hope you do as well.  February was a month for checking your pulse.  The market swings were so enormous that several analysis could not determine what to make of it.  Conference call after  conference call, everyone has a different opinion.  Well, this is an election year, oil has hit its all time low, and the Fed's are to announce rate hikes this month. Overall, the US economy is looking stable. If you are diversified, then you have captured the uptick of the market over the past weeks.  Please reach out to me with any concerns or questions.

December Market Review

Global financial markets closed slightly lower in February, however it provided far better results than what many expected a month ago when investor sentiment and expectations were quite negative. The overall U.S. stock market (Russell 3000) was flat, with small U.S. stocks (Russell 2000) slightly outperforming large U.S. stocks (S&P 500). Overseas, developed markets (MSCI EAFE) lost just under 2%, while emerging markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index) closed flat. Commodities closed lower in February, however the asset class showed signs of strength during the second half of the month. I’ll discuss this asset class in more detail in the second section of this Monthly Market Review. Bonds also posted a gain last month, with the overall bond market (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index) gaining just under 1%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield ended the month at 1.74%.

Economy

Economic Data Better Than Expected

Economic data released during February was generally better than expected. The employment report, the most anticipated report of the month, dramatically surpassed expectations as the employment market added 242,000 jobs in February, 230,000 of which were in the private sector. Additionally, December and January payrolls were revised higher by a combined 30,000 jobs. While the participation rate increased, average hourly earnings and the average workweek both declined unexpectedly. Still the report was strong enough to push Treasury yields significantly higher.  Meanwhile, January's pending home sales unexpectedly declined 2.5%, albeit from an upwardly revised December level. January construction was significantly stronger than expected while December construction spending was revised higher. Additionally, the ISM manufacturing and services surveys indicated that economic activity was somewhat stronger than expected. Factory orders were weaker than expected as strength in durable goods orders was offset by energy-related weakness.

International

The current volatility in markets is not surprising when you consider that we’ve just had the first Fed rate rise in nearly a decade and there are strong concerns about global growth. China is transitioning from a manufacturing-led to a service-led economy, which will require some adjustment. But there is plenty of evidence that China’s service economy is doing very well, which is encouraging.  Emerging markets more broadly have slowed a lot, but it is not a homogeneous asset class and there are places that are doing well, for example India, the Philippines and Indonesia.  Another cause of recent instability—the low oil price—is likely to persist for a while, with $25-$30 per barrel being the long-term bottom price.

Insurance

You have to face that no matter how lucky you are, throughout your life you will have some unfortunate and expensive financial incidents. The good news is that there are different types of insurance products that will make these one-time financial burdens less costly when they happen. When it comes to insurance, there are many unnecessary products out there, too, but there are a few that, statistically, are worth having.  So, what are the most important insurance to have?

Life, Long Term Care, Health, and Auto are the four most important types of insurance.

One product can have several different characteristics or benefits, and some companies trying to "up sale" you more than you need. Not to mention, there are several companies, so make sure you figure out what is right for you and your family before diving in.  Then go with a respectable company with an A or better rating.  We are always available to answer your questions.

My thoughts:

Volatility Likely to Persist

Global risk-oriented asset classes have rallied significantly over the last month, with some of the most beaten down assets classes (commodities, high yield bonds, small cap equities, and emerging equities) registering dramatic gains. As we noted last month, "whether this is a simple relief rally or something more remains to be seen." This will largely be determined by incoming economic data which has been decidedly mixed. For example while recent economic data abroad has been more disappointing, indications are that the US economy continues to move ahead at a tepid pace. This distinction is expected to be evident in divergent central bank actions, with the ECB and the Fed meetings this month. With Global central bank policies drifting into uncharted waters (e.g. negative rates), we expect global markets to remain volatile and we remind investors that the best defense against market volatility is process and discipline. Stay diversified, stay the course and do not let your feelings take over your actions.

 

Mark Sumner
Financial Advisor

Sumner Wealth Management, Inc.                
517 Alcove Road, Suite 202                                            
Mooresville, NC  28117                      
(704) 660-5510  Ext. 401                                        
www.sumnerwealthmanagement.com                                  


Investment Management
Retirement Services
Insurance

Our firm assist individuals, families, and businesses in proactively preparing themselves for a broad range of financial decisions and life events by utilizing a team of specialized individuals to help our clients gain income protection, financial stability, and overall peace of mind for themselves and their loved ones.  We are an Integrated,  Wealth Manager Specialists. 

   Sumner Wealth Management | 704.660.5510 x 410 | www.SumnerWealthManagement.com

Securities offered through Securities Service Network, Inc. Member:  FINRA/SPIC

If a recommendation is included in the above email, please contact me for additional investment information supporting the recommendation.

Fee based advisory services offered through SSN Advisory, Inc. a registered investment advisor  

If you don't wish to receive emails from us, please .